Diesel is denser, but the motor is three times better
The case against battery trucks always began with energy density. It is the right place to start, as long as you count what actually reaches the wheels.
A litre of diesel stores about 10 kWh of chemical energy, roughly 12 kWh per kilogram, but a truck engine turns well under half of it into motion. A battery pack stores around 0.15–0.2 kWh per kilogram today and delivers about 90% of it to the wheels. Per kilogram of useful energy, diesel still wins by roughly a factor of 30 (Derived). That gap is why battery trucks are heavier. It is also less than half the raw factor of about 70, and it is partly offset because an electric truck carries no engine, gearbox or exhaust treatment.
What matters for a business is not energy density in the abstract but the weight of the pack a real route needs. At one kilowatt-hour per kilometre, 500 km needs about 550 kWh in the pack once you keep a reserve, about 3.5 tonnes at today’s pack densities (Derived). For many loads, trailers fill up by volume before they reach the weight limit, so that extra mass costs nothing. For dense loads such as steel, gravel or beverages, it costs payload, which is why European lawmakers have backed extra weight allowances for zero-emission trucks.
The truck does not need to carry a continent’s worth of energy
A continent-spanning journey is a sequence of driving legs. At an assumed 80 km/h, Europe’s 4.5-hour driving interval covers 360 km. At 1 kWh/km, replacing that energy during a 45-minute break requires an average 480 kW into the battery. A charger delivering 85% of its nameplate rating therefore needs about 565 kW; a 1 MW charger takes about 25 minutes. These are energy calculations, not a promise about every stop. Queues, a cold battery, charging taper and a detour can consume the remaining margin. The break rules also allow a split break, so not every legal schedule provides one uninterrupted 45-minute charging window. European Commission driving and rest rules
Carrying a larger pack is one way to cover uncertain charging, but it raises the purchase bill and the mass hauled all day. A truck returning to a depot can instead use a smaller pack and predictable overnight power. A highway tractor needs dependable public charging at the right places. The engineering problem changes with the route, even when the battery chemistry stays the same. Daimler’s eActros 600 has a 621 kWh nominal pack and has been tested across Europe at 40 tonnes, but those manufacturer tests do not represent every fleet’s winter, terrain or delivery schedule. Daimler’s vehicle specifications and testing
Charging requirements are Derived under stated assumptions. Legal rest requires the driver to be free of work; plugging in and other duties cannot automatically be counted as rest.
How heavy is the battery, and how long is the stop?
Distance between charges sets the battery’s weight; charger power sets the length of the stop; energy prices set the running cost. Change one at a time.
A 556 kWh pack for 500 km between charges
- Diesel for the same distance
- 126 kg
- Charge for the next 4.5 hours of driving
- 25 min · fits the break
- Energy cost per 100 km, electric
- $33
- Energy cost per 100 km, diesel
- $54
- Electricity price matching diesel energy cost
- $0.49/kWh
Presets are illustrative. The European case uses roughly 1 kWh per kilometre, consistent with manufacturer tests. The China case models depot charging for a short industrial shuttle, not battery swapping. Electricity costs include an assumed 90% grid-to-battery efficiency. Break charging assumes the truck can accept the calculated energy; queues, detours and cold-weather delays are excluded.
Calculation & assumptions
Pack energy = distance × battery energy use ÷ usable share. Pack mass = pack energy ÷ pack-level energy density. Charge time = energy for 360 km ÷ (0.85 × nameplate kW), assuming the energy fits the battery. Electricity cost = battery energy × meter tariff ÷ 0.9. Energy-cost parity tariff = diesel cost per 100 km × 0.9 ÷ battery energy per 100 km. The 360 km leg assumes 4.5 hours at 80 km/h and an uninterrupted 45-minute break. Diesel mass uses 0.84 kg/L. Excluded: purchase price, removed diesel equipment, maintenance, tolls, demand charges and payload revenue.
A battery truck is only as good as its plug
A diesel truck plugs into a century of filling stations. An electric truck needs a new network, and every link in it has a cost.
Cells
The electrochemistry that stores energy. Cheaper lithium iron phosphate cells now dominate in China because they last longer and cost less, at some cost in weight.
- Measure
- $/kWh · Wh/kg · cycle life
- Failure boundary
- Each extra kilogram of battery is a kilogram of cargo the truck cannot carry on weight-limited loads.
Where the frontier moves
Denser cells and cell-to-pack designs that cut casing weight without giving up lifetime.
The pack in the truck
Cells assembled with cooling, structure and safety systems, sized to the route rather than the worst imaginable trip.
- Measure
- kWh installed · pack mass · usable share
- Failure boundary
- Oversized packs carry dead weight every day to cover a trip made once a month.
Where the frontier moves
Matching pack size to duty cycle, and swapping packs for routes that need more.
Charging and swapping
Megawatt chargers that refill a pack during a driver’s legal break, or stations that exchange a flat pack for a full one in minutes.
- Measure
- kW per bay · minutes per stop · availability
- Failure boundary
- A truck waiting for a charger is a truck not earning. One broken charger can strand a route.
Where the frontier moves
The Megawatt Charging System standard, opened to the public in Europe in 2025, and China’s standardised swap packs.
The grid connection
A depot charging dozens of trucks overnight, or a highway hub with several megawatt chargers, needs a substation-scale connection.
- Measure
- MW of connection · months to energise
- Failure boundary
- Grid connections can take years, longer than buying the trucks.
Where the frontier moves
On-site batteries that charge slowly from the grid and discharge quickly into trucks.
Electricity price
Truck operators live on margins of a few percent, so the price per kilowatt-hour at the plug decides whether electric trucks pay back.
- Measure
- $/kWh delivered vs $/litre of diesel
- Failure boundary
- Public fast-charging can cost several times the wholesale price of power, wiping out the efficiency advantage.
Where the frontier moves
Depot charging at night, and contracts that pass through cheap off-peak and solar power.
Routes and rules
Driving hours, weight limits, tolls and the distances freight actually travels.
- Measure
- Share of trips under 500 km · weight allowance
- Failure boundary
- Rules written for diesel can penalise heavier electric trucks.
Where the frontier moves
Extra weight allowances for zero-emission trucks and road-toll discounts tied to emissions.
Cheap cells, cheap power and a five-minute swap
China’s lead is not a mystery and it is not only subsidy. Several advantages arrived at once.
What changed in two years
Chinese battery makers sell the world’s cheapest lithium iron phosphate cells. Industrial electricity is cheap and diesel is relatively expensive. Many heavy trucks run short, fixed routes between mines, ports, steel mills and power plants, which suit swapping: a robot exchanges a flat pack for a full one in minutes, and the truck owner can lease the battery rather than buy it. CATL’s standard swap pack, launched in 2025, is designed to fit most mainstream heavy trucks, so one network can serve many brands.
The trucks are ready before the network
Electric trucks for long-distance freight are in series production in Europe. What lags is everything they plug into.
The Megawatt Charging System, a standard plug capable of more than one megawatt, delivered its first public charging sessions in Europe in August 2025 and North America in March 2026. Milence, a joint venture of Daimler Truck, the Traton Group and Volvo, plans around 1,700 high-power charging points in Europe by 2030, and EU rules require truck charging every 60 km along the core highway network by the same year. A 2021 ICCT study found that battery-electric tractor-trailers could reach cost parity with diesel this decade in all seven large European markets it examined, without extra subsidy, as long as charging is available at reasonable prices.
The United States has the trucks but not yet the conditions: diesel is cheaper than in Europe, public megawatt charging has barely begun, utility connections for depots can take years, and California’s truck sales mandate, the strongest policy push, lost its federal waiver in 2025. Its 0.3% share reflects those conditions, not the technology.
Most of the remaining work is infrastructure and pricing
Cheaper and denser batteries will keep helping. But the levers that would move adoption fastest outside China are about where and at what price trucks can charge.
China proves deployment; long haul needs its own evidence
The IEA reports a 28% electric share of Chinese heavy freight truck sales in 2025, with much deployment on predictable industrial routes. It reports about 1.5% for Europe’s heavy freight segment, while ACEA reports 4.2% electrically chargeable registrations across EU trucks above 3.5 tonnes. The geographies, weight classes and powertrain categories differ. China’s rapid adoption is strong evidence that many freight duties can be electrified; it does not mean 28% of transcontinental trucking is already electric. IEA Global EV Outlook 2026; ACEA’s full-year 2025 registrations
The running-cost advantage has a threshold. With the calculator’s European assumptions, diesel costs $54 per 100 km and the electric truck uses 100 kWh. Before charging losses, electricity stops being cheaper above $0.54/kWh. At 90% charging efficiency, that threshold falls to about $0.49/kWh at the meter. Capital repayment, charger fees, grid demand charges, maintenance and lost payload then decide total cost. A cheap depot tariff and an expensive highway tariff can produce different answers for the same truck. The most useful fleet metric is cost per delivered tonne-kilometre, including downtime.
Price thresholds are Derived, not current tariff quotes. The calculator compares energy costs; it does not calculate total ownership cost, charger queues or battery-swapping operations.
Price the plug, not the battery
A truck that pays wholesale electricity prices at its depot beats diesel easily. One that pays retail fast-charging prices may not.
Build chargers where trucks stop
Long-haul trucks stop at the same logistics hubs and rest areas. Chargers belong there first, sized at a megawatt or more.
Connect the grid faster
The slowest part of electrifying a depot is often the utility connection, not the trucks or the chargers.
Size packs to the route
Most freight moves well under 500 km a day. A truck built for the average route carries less dead weight than one built for the rare longest trip.
Give the weight back
Allowing zero-emission trucks extra gross weight keeps payloads competitive while batteries remain heavier than diesel.
Standardise the swap
China’s shared swap packs let one battery serve many truck brands and keep expensive packs working around the clock.
Who is building what
Truck makers, charging networks and battery-swap operators. Search the record, or filter by role.
Daimler TruckMercedes-Benz eActros 600Long-haul tractor with a 621 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery and about 500 km range
- Reported evidence
- In customer tests it averaged 96–103 kWh per 100 km at 33–40 tonnes and drove almost 600 km on one charge.
- Announced next step
- Series production for European long-haul fleets.
- Unresolved risk
- Depends on public megawatt charging and electricity prices along European corridors.
TeslaSemiClass 8 electric tractor designed for megawatt-class charging
- Reported evidence
- Operated by PepsiCo and other fleets in pilot deployments since 2022.
- Announced next step
- High-volume production from a dedicated Nevada line.
- Unresolved risk
- Production timelines have repeatedly slipped; fleet-scale cost and reliability data are limited.
Volvo GroupFH ElectricBattery-electric heavy trucks for regional and long-haul use
- Reported evidence
- In series production since 2022 with fleets across Europe.
- Announced next step
- Longer-range models for continental routes.
- Unresolved risk
- Adoption depends on charging infrastructure and operator economics.
CATLQIJI Energy swap networkStandardised swappable battery packs for heavy trucks, exchanged in minutes
- Reported evidence
- Launched a standard #75 swap pack in 2025 designed to fit most mainstream heavy trucks; opened a 1,250 km swap route.
- Announced next step
- A national swap network covering most of China’s trunk freight capacity by 2030.
- Unresolved risk
- Requires standardisation across rival truck makers and high utilisation of costly spare packs.
Qiyuan Green Power (SPIC)Charging and swapping stationsOperator-run swap and charging network for heavy trucks
- Reported evidence
- More than 1,600 stations in 208 Chinese cities by the end of 2025, with over 4.4 billion km of cumulative operation.
- Announced next step
- Expansion along freight corridors.
- Unresolved risk
- Station economics depend on steady truck traffic and electricity prices.
MilenceEuropean truck charging networkJoint venture of Daimler Truck, Traton and Volvo building high-power truck charging hubs
- Reported evidence
- Opened public charging hubs and delivered early Megawatt Charging System sessions in Europe from 2025.
- Announced next step
- About 1,700 high-power charging points by 2030.
- Unresolved risk
- Grid connection lead times and utilisation during the early years.
CharIN / SAEMegawatt Charging System (MCS)A common connector and protocol for charging trucks at more than one megawatt
- Reported evidence
- First public MCS sessions in Europe in August 2025 and North America in March 2026.
- Announced next step
- Universal adoption across truck makers and chargers.
- Unresolved risk
- Interoperability problems and slow rollout would leave trucks limited to depot charging.
European UnionAFIR and weights rulesMandated truck charging along highways and extra weight allowances for zero-emission trucks
- Reported evidence
- AFIR requires heavy-vehicle charging every 60 km on the core network by 2030; lawmakers have backed extra weight for zero-emission trucks.
- Announced next step
- Full corridor coverage by 2030.
- Unresolved risk
- Member-state delivery varies; weight rule changes also benefit diesel if not targeted.
A manufacturer’s quoted range assumes favourable conditions. Fleet operators should judge trucks by kilometres driven per working day, charging downtime and cost per tonne-kilometre over a year.
An optimistic view, with conditions
Electric freight works on suitable routes; the network must broaden that range
A 40-tonne truck that runs 500 km between charges and refills during a legal break already exists. Battery prices keep falling. Where electricity is cheap and chargers are in place, electric trucks are already the cheaper choice, and China shows how quickly adoption follows.
Depots and regional routes
Return-to-base trucks that charge overnight at depot prices already beat diesel on running cost wherever power is reasonably priced.
Megawatt corridors
Reliable megawatt charging at the hubs where long-haul trucks already stop, at prices close to commercial electricity rates.
Freight runs on the grid
Denser cells, swappable packs and smart charging make battery trucks the default, and turn depots into flexible loads that soak up cheap solar and wind power.
Four numbers to watch
First, the battery-electric share of heavy truck sales outside China, especially in the heaviest class. Second, the price per kilowatt-hour at public megawatt chargers compared with depot charging. Third, the number of megawatt charging points in operation, not announced, along major freight corridors. Fourth, pack energy density in commercial trucks, which sets how much payload a battery truck gives up on dense loads.
Sources, method, and boundaries
Sales shares are measured 2025 figures from the ICCT and European registration data. Energy-use figures come from Mercedes-Benz’s published real-world tests. Operating savings in China are reported by operators and battery companies and are not independently audited. The interactive model is a physics and energy-cost calculation; it excludes purchase price, maintenance, financing, tolls and taxes, so it is not a total cost of ownership.
- Heavy truck
- Usually a truck above 15–16 tonnes gross vehicle weight; definitions vary by country.
- Pack energy density
- Stored energy divided by the mass of the whole battery pack, including casing and cooling, not just the cells.
- Battery swapping
- Replacing a depleted pack with a charged one at a station, rather than charging it in the truck.
Read More
Essays, books, talks, and research that shaped this field’s arguments. Influence is not endorsement; company communications and advocacy are labeled. Some publisher links require a subscription.
- Report
ICCT — Total cost of ownership for tractor-trailers in Europe: battery electric versus diesel (2021)
The country-by-country analysis that found battery trucks reaching cost parity this decade.
- Report
BloombergNEF — Lithium-ion battery pack price survey (2025)
The annual benchmark for battery prices, by segment and chemistry.
- Company communication
Daimler Truck — eActros 600 European testing tour
Real-world energy use and range data from long-haul test drives across Europe.
- Company communication
Traton — MCS: a game changer for heavy-duty vehicle charging
How the Megawatt Charging System fits charging into drivers’ legal breaks.
Across the fields: learning curves, deployment, and rebound
- Theodore Wright — Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes (1936)
The original experience-curve formulation: costs change with accumulated production.
- Kenneth Arrow — The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing (1962)
The economics of productivity improvement through production experience.
- William Stanley Jevons — The Coal Question (1865)
The classic rebound argument: lower effective costs can expand total demand.
- Arnulf Grübler — The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing (2010)
A counterexample to assuming that greater deployment always lowers costs.



















