Build the molecule that an engine takes apart
Combustion combines a hydrocarbon with oxygen and releases heat, CO₂, and water. Power-to-liquids pays energy to reverse that direction: split water, recover carbon, create carbon monoxide, form longer chains, and refine them into a specification.
The product's advantage is compatibility. Dense liquid fuel can use aircraft, engines, tanks, pipelines, and logistics built around hydrocarbons. Its disadvantage is the same fact viewed thermodynamically: electricity is converted into a molecule and later converted again into motion, losing useful energy at both stages.
Compatibility is what the losses buy
Those percentages are demand obligations, not evidence that production has reached scale. EASA's 2026 market report said no large synthetic-fuel facility had yet reached final investment decision in its assessed EU pipeline.
The atoms set a lower bound
An idealized hydrocarbon repeat unit, CH₂, has one carbon atom and two hydrogen atoms. Molar mass makes the minimum feed transparent before conversion losses enter.
Not all captured carbon reaches saleable jet fuel. Fischer–Tropsch synthesis produces a distribution of chain lengths. Gas and light fractions may be recycled or used for heat; heavy waxes are hydrocracked; oxygenates and water are separated. A plant should report carbon efficiency to each product, not only conversion inside one reactor.
Every individually reasonable step takes a cut
Electrolysis, compression, reverse water-gas shift, synthesis, separation, and upgrading multiply rather than add their efficiencies.
A 70%-efficient electrolyser followed by an 80%-efficient synthesis and upgrading chain retains only 56% before balance-of-plant loads. Real system comparison must include capture energy, compression, recycle, heat integration, auxiliaries, and the fuel fraction that meets the target specification.
| Layer | Main measure | Failure mode |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity | Hourly $/MWh and carbon intensity | Cheap hours leave capital idle |
| Hydrogen | kWh/kg, stack life, utilization | Replacement and compression erase gains |
| Carbon | Origin, purity, $/t, capture energy | Cheap fossil CO₂ does not close the loop |
| Synthesis | Carbon efficiency and target yield | Off-products dilute saleable output |
| Upgrading | Certified litres per feed tonne | Fuel misses freezing, density, or blending rules |
Cheap electricity is not the same as cheap fuel
Change power price and plant utilization together. The model exposes electricity, carbon feedstock, and capital recovery for a nominal 100,000-litre-per-day plant; it is not a delivered-fuel quote.
Exposed production burden
- Electricity
- $0.77/L
- CO₂ feedstock
- $0.32/L
- Capital + fixed
- $2.13/L
- Electricity input
- 21.9 kWh/L
- Implied power-to-liquid
- 43%
A litre of jet-range hydrocarbon contains roughly 9.5 kWh of lower-heating-value energy. The model's implied efficiency divides that by electrolyser plus selected process electricity; it therefore excludes upstream generation and downstream engine losses.
Calculation and boundaries
Electricity cost = (hydrogen input × electrolyser kWh/kg + other process kWh) × $/kWh. Carbon cost = kg CO₂/L × $/kg. Capital + fixed cost = installed capital × annual charge rate ÷ (100,000 L/day × 365 × utilization).
Excluded: water, catalysts, replacement stacks, oxygen or heat credits, carbon-capture energy if not included in CO₂ price, product yield outside the selected inputs, storage, blending, transport, taxes, margin, and financing beyond the annual charge. Installed capital is deliberately user-set; no single public number describes projects with different boundaries.
The cheapest electron can make expensive fuel
A synthesis plant sized for occasional surplus power earns revenue occasionally but carries capital continuously.
Hydrogen storage can decouple a flexible electrolyser from a steadier synthesis loop, but it adds compression, tanks or caverns, inventory, and another utilization problem. Firm clean electricity costs more per MWh but can lower capital cost per litre. The optimum depends on the joint hourly system, not an annual average power price.
Electrolysers can flex
Stacks can follow power more readily than a hot, pressurized chemical loop, though cycling can affect efficiency and life.
Synthesis prefers continuity
Catalysts, recycle ratios, separation columns, and heat integration work best near a designed operating state.
Storage buys coupling
Hydrogen or intermediate storage protects synthesis utilization while exposing capital, safety, and geography.
Contracts shape operation
Hourly clean-power rules, grid access, and product offtake determine whether an optimized plant is legally low-carbon and financially useful.
The cheapest source may defeat the purpose
Concentrated industrial CO₂ is easier to purify than atmospheric CO₂, but carbon origin changes the lifecycle story.
Biogenic CO₂ and direct air capture can create a circular atmospheric carbon flow when powered cleanly. Fossil point-source CO₂ can reduce emissions relative to extracting fresh oil but still introduces geological carbon after combustion. A credible fuel certificate traces carbon origin, hydrogen electricity, process energy, transport, and co-product allocation.
Aviation pays for density and compatibility
Cars can use batteries directly. Long-haul aircraft carry their energy source, making mass, volume, freezing behavior, and global refuelling compatibility unusually valuable.
This makes aviation the strongest case for synthetic hydrocarbons, and a stringent test. Fuel must meet ASTM pathways and blend rules, contain appropriate aromatics or be paired with them, work at low temperature, and arrive at airports through certified custody. Policy can create initial demand; only operating plants reveal the eventual premium.
Who is building what
Direct electrochemical CO₂ reduction, reverse water-gas shift, Fischer-Tropsch catalytic synthesis, and high-temperature co-electrolysis construct drop-in hydrocarbon fuels. Search the record, or filter by synthesis pathway.
TwelveOpus CO2 Electrolysis & E-JetElectrochemical CO₂ reduction using proprietary membrane electrode assemblies (MEA) converting CO₂ and water directly into syngas, bypassing separate reverse water-gas shift
- Reported evidence
- Constructing commercial E-Jet manufacturing plant (AirPlant One) in Moses Lake, Washington; delivered certified synthetic SAF to commercial aviation partners.
- Announced next step
- Commercial volume production of drop-in aviation fuel with up to 90% lifecycle emissions reduction compared to fossil jet A-1.
- Unresolved risk
- Catalyst durability and selectivity against hydrogen evolution over thousands of operating hours in industrial CO₂ electrolyzer stacks.
HIF GlobalHaru Oni Demonstration & MatagordaPairing high-capacity wind power in southern Chile with Siemens alkaline electrolyzers, direct air capture, and methanol-to-gasoline (MTG) catalytic synthesis
- Reported evidence
- Haru Oni operational in Magallanes, Chile, producing certified e-gasoline shipped to Porsche for test fleets; developing commercial e-fuel plant in Texas.
- Announced next step
- Commercial export facilities producing millions of liters of carbon-neutral gasoline and e-methanol annually for automotive and marine offtake.
- Unresolved risk
- Very high capital investment per barrel of delivered fuel, long marine shipping distances, and low overall round-trip energy efficiency (~45%).
Norsk e-FuelMosjøen Power-to-LiquidIntegrating solid oxide co-electrolysis with direct air capture and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis to produce synthetic paraffinic kerosene (e-SAF)
- Reported evidence
- Secured industrial site in Mosjøen, Norway with access to clean hydropower; signed commercial SAF offtake agreements with Norwegian Air and Cargolux.
- Announced next step
- Commercial plant commissioning targeting 50 million liters of fossil-free aviation fuel annually by 2026–2028.
- Unresolved risk
- Power supply allocation constraints on local grids and high cost differential between e-SAF and fossil jet fuel requiring regulatory mandates.
InfiniumElectrofuels Facility (Pathfinder)Direct conversion of captured industrial CO₂ and green hydrogen into drop-in synthetic diesel and aviation fuel using proprietary catalysts
- Reported evidence
- Commissioned operational commercial e-fuels facility (Project Pathfinder) in Corpus Christi, Texas, delivering commercial synthetic fuel to Amazon's fleet.
- Announced next step
- Expanding commercial production facilities in Texas and France supplying drop-in electrofuels to global transport fleets.
- Unresolved risk
- Reliable long-term supply of pure biogenic or direct-air-captured CO₂ feedstock at predictable pricing.
Prometheus FuelsElectrochemical Carbon SeparationDirect electrochemical conversion of atmospheric CO₂ in water into ethanol and alcohols, separated via carbon nanotube membranes and catalytic oligomerization
- Reported evidence
- Demonstrated laboratory and pilot electrochemical cells producing automotive-grade gasoline; backed by BMW i Ventures and American Airlines.
- Announced next step
- Zero-carbon drop-in gasoline produced at standard retail pump price parity without government subsidies.
- Unresolved risk
- Membrane selective flux under high current densities and scaling nanoscale electrochemical reactors to industrial fuel volumes.
SunfireCo-Electrolysis (SOEC)High-temperature solid oxide electrolysis cells operating at ~800°C co-electrolyzing steam (H₂O) and CO₂ simultaneously into synthesis gas (CO + H₂)
- Reported evidence
- Multi-megawatt SOEC systems deployed in European industrial pilots; demonstrated significant electrical efficiency gains over low-temperature systems.
- Announced next step
- Direct coupling of high-temperature co-electrolysis to Fischer-Tropsch synthesis loops, recycling synthesis heat directly back to the electrolyzer.
- Unresolved risk
- Ceramic cell degradation under fluctuating carbon-monoxide chemical potentials, carbon coking on electrodes, and thermal cycling.
LanzaTech / LanzaJetFreedom Pines Fuels (Alcohol-to-Jet)Biological gas fermentation of industrial carbon monoxide off-gases into ethanol, followed by chemical Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) catalytic synthesis into SAF
- Reported evidence
- Inaugurated world's first commercial ATJ plant (LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels) in Soperton, Georgia, producing 10 million gallons/year of SAF and renewable diesel.
- Announced next step
- Deploying 1 billion gallons of annual SAF production capacity globally by 2030 across international aviation hubs.
- Unresolved risk
- Competition for commercial ethanol feedstocks from road transport blending and chemical industry applications.
ICAO / ReFuelEU AviationRegulatory Mandates & Book-and-ClaimEuropean Union and international aviation mandates legally requiring airlines to blend increasing percentages of synthetic e-kerosene (starting at 1.2% in 2030, rising to 35% in 2050)
- Reported evidence
- ReFuelEU Aviation regulation officially adopted into EU law, establishing guaranteed statutory demand for certified non-fossil synthetic fuels.
- Announced next step
- Establishing book-and-claim digital accounting systems allowing airlines to purchase e-SAF attributes without physically fueling at every airport.
- Unresolved risk
- Compliance penalty thresholds versus commercial fuel cost gaps, and potential airline route leakage to non-EU refueling hubs.
Overall electrical-to-fuel thermodynamic round-trip efficiency rarely exceeds 40–50%; e-fuel production requires ~20–25 kWh of zero-carbon electricity per liter of drop-in jet fuel.
An optimistic view, with conditions
Use synthetic fuel where the molecule earns its losses
The stack can improve through cheaper power, durable electrolysers, heat integration, higher selectivity, modular construction, and shared carbon infrastructure. It should compete first where direct electrification cannot deliver the same service.
Prove full balances
Publish hourly electricity, net carbon intensity, utilization, carbon efficiency, target yield, and delivered litres.
Concentrate demand
Aviation mandates and durable offtake can support initial plants without pretending they match fossil price.
Standardize trains
Repeatable electrolysis, synthesis, upgrading, and certification packages must turn projects into products.
How much fuel must the new system replace?
IATA estimates 1.9 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel in 2025, just 0.6% of global jet-fuel use. Most of that supply is biofuel from oils and fats, not synthetic fuel. In the EU, EASA’s 2026 review of 2025 reporting recorded 1.1 million tonnes of SAF, about 2.79% of reported supply, predominantly used-cooking-oil biofuel. It found no large synthetic-fuel facility in the assessed EU pipeline had reached final investment decision. The EU mandate rises to 6% total SAF in 2030, including 1.2% synthetic, and 70% total in 2050, including 35% synthetic.
The same EASA review gives a 2025 reference price of €640/t for conventional jet fuel and €1,925/t for bio-based SAF. Its synthetic-fuel reference of €7,520/t using industrial or biogenic CO₂ is a modeled production-cost estimate, not an observed transaction: EASA says real e-SAF price indexes were unavailable. This is a more useful price boundary than treating every SAF premium as an e-fuel price. EASA reference-price method and table.
For a scale check, IATA’s 1.9 Mt and 0.6% imply roughly 317 Mt of annual global jet fuel. Supplying 10% as synthetic fuel would mean about 32 Mt of fuel, at least 100 Mt of CO₂ feed from CH₂ stoichiometry, and around 790 TWh of clean electricity at an illustrative 20 kWh/L and 0.8 kg/L. Actual input rises with carbon and fuel yield losses. This is a derived scenario, not a forecast of future demand or plant output. If a synthesis train’s annual capital charge is unchanged, halving its utilization doubles that capital charge per litre; cheap, intermittent power only helps when the electricity savings exceed this penalty and any buffering cost.
Fuel carbon is also only part of aviation’s climate effect. EASA’s aviation non-CO₂ review identifies contrails, NOₓ and aerosols as material and uncertain warming terms. Cleaner fuel composition and targeted contrail avoidance are separate levers; a carbon-neutral molecule does not automatically cancel them. Battery-electric and hydrogen aircraft may serve some shorter routes, but the energy density and airport infrastructure needed for long-haul flight keep drop-in fuels central to that segment.
Efficiency helps, but the aircraft choice still depends on range
ICAO estimates aircraft built in the mid-2010s used about 80% less fuel per passenger-kilometre than 1960s aircraft, while anticipated efficiency gains of roughly 1–2% a year were slower than traffic growth in its cited outlook. This is a long-run aircraft comparison, not a measured 2026 fleet average. Airbus revised its ZEROe hydrogen roadmap in 2025 toward technology maturation; it did not announce an operating zero-emission airliner. Battery and hydrogen concepts may reduce fossil demand on shorter missions, while long-haul aircraft remain the main case for certified dense liquid fuel. Programme nameplate capacity below is not evidence of delivered e-SAF.
Sources, method, and boundaries
Stoichiometric figures are derived from molar mass; the calculator exposes assumptions rather than predicting market price. Policy shares are legal requirements. Announced capacity and targets are not operating production.
